Jan. 29, 2018, 4:08 p.m.

The Next U.S. Recession (View from '18)

The next downturn will be driven by deteriorating household balance sheets. The following factors are especially critical:

I. Falling Personal Saving amid resurgent Animal Spirts:

II. Skyrocketing healthcare costs, falling insurance coverage rates, and an aging population:

III. Growing Debt Burdens among the young people who entered school to escape the last downturn:

IV. Explosion in non-housing debt amid monetary tightening:

These factors merit close attention, as opinion leaders advance the "boom" narrative.