Jan. 29, 2018, 4:08 p.m.

The Next U.S. Recession (View from '18)

The next downturn will be driven by deteriorating household balance sheets. The following factors are especially critical:

I. Falling Personal Saving amid resurgent Animal Spirts:
https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm

II. Skyrocketing healthcare costs, falling insurance coverage rates, and an aging population:
http://news.gallup.com/poll/225383/uninsured-rate-steady-fourth-quarter-2017.aspx

III. Growing Debt Burdens among the young people who entered school to escape the last downturn:
https://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2017/12/05/student-loan-debt-the-bubble-goldman-thinks-you-should-buy/

IV. Explosion in non-housing debt amid monetary tightening:
https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2017/rp171114

These factors merit close attention, as opinion leaders advance the "boom" narrative.