The Next U.S. Recession (View from '18)
The next downturn will be driven by deteriorating household balance sheets. The following factors are especially critical:
I. Falling Personal Saving amid resurgent Animal Spirts:
II. Skyrocketing healthcare costs, falling insurance coverage rates, and an aging population:
III. Growing Debt Burdens among the young people who entered school to escape the last downturn:
IV. Explosion in non-housing debt amid monetary tightening:
These factors merit close attention, as opinion leaders advance the "boom" narrative.